Rameshsing Jugurnauth (guest)
BSC (hons) Statistics with Computer Science. Searching job. Tel: 4929457
Presidential Election: A complex equation en route
- By Rameshsing Jugurnauth (guest)
- Published 8th September, 2008
The US presidential race which will be held on 4th November is indeed one the most pasionable contest that we are going to witness. Even the current US president George Bush was much more certain, Hillary Clinton would be the nominee and he did not rate Obama's chances. Many believed strongly that Clinton would win the Democratic primary and the subsequent election. No serious analyst predicted an Obama-McCain contest or that, going into the Democratic convention, the two candidates would be neck and neck in the polls.
The battle of the titans would indeed be fascinating between the Republican and Democrats; McCain v/s Obama. The contest has become more interesting with the inclusion of Sarah Palin. Controversies that she recently faced, has helped to hike McCain chances of winning the US presidential battle. McCain needed to strike a precarious balance, distinguishing himself from the unpopular presidency of fellow Republican George W. Bush while not alienating the party's conservative base, which remains loyal to the president and has been skeptical of McCain. His selection of Palin, a fierce conservative, made that task easier. Conservatives were delighted with the selection and electrified by Palin's speech Wednesday. With their support now all-but-assured, McCain has greater freedom to highlight his reputation as a maverick and distance himself from Bush — as he did in his acceptance speech Thursday.
Poll from the Rasmussen tracking on Friday, revealed that John McCain headed into the last 60 days of the US presidential campaign neck and neck with Barack Obama after a "Sarah Palin bounce" appeared to have all but cancelled out the Democrat's lead in the polls. With the Republican Party finishing its convention in St Paul believing that victory on November 4 is truly within its grasp, the tracking poll had Mr Obama on 46 per cent and Mr McCain on 45 per cent.
Most Americans think the country is on the wrong track; Bush is highly unpopular; Iraq is unpopular; only twice since World War II (1948 and 1988) has an incumbent party won a third consecutive term in the presidency; the American economy is hit with financial crises and crippling oil prices. Both Obama and McCain have promised change as solution to tough time faced by America.
The mainstream media is overwhelmingly pro-Obama and anti-Republican. Meanwhile, Obama has shifted his campaign strategy to concentrate on key states rather than compete in all 50 states as he once pledged. He still plans to push into traditionally Republican and rural areas in swing states such as Ohio, but would likely skip undeniably Republican states such as Idaho.
While the Republicans are facing their worst political circumstances in a generation, with a corrosive party brand, a faltering economy, an unpopular war and a record number of Americans believing that the country is on the wrong track. Yet Mr McCain remains locked in a tight contest, with Democratic strategists nervous that Mr Obama's ratings are artificially inflated because of a reluctance among some voters to admit that they are ambivalent about his race. The Democrats' greatest battle remains in convincing voters to overcome doubts about their man's background and lack of experience.
Allocation of the Mauritian president post is also very passionating. Some may believe that extending the mandate of the current president would indeed bring more votes to the alliance social in the next election as it would lower the chances of the opposition party. Others would believe that as the current president was taken into office by the previous government, the current government should not extend the mandate. The name of the our next president of Mauritius is still quite difficult to predict but i will bet on the current president being in office even after the current mandate and if that does happen then my second choice will be on the current vice president being our next president.
For the outcome of US presidential election, it is too early to say anything as in the next two months, anything can happen. If a new terrorist tape is broadcast before the election, then McCain would be the most likely to go up on polls as undecided voters fearing for safety would choose an offensive leader rather than a defensive one.
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