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Friday, 28 October 2011 18:28

Meteo predicts warmer summer

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In a report published on Monday, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have predicted that Summer 2011-2012 will be slightly warmer than usual. “However, on certain days it is likely that temperatures will exceed the average by more than two degrees Celsius. Maximum temperatures may reach 35 degrees Celsius at Port Louis and in coastal areas”, write the authors of this seasonal climate prediction report.
According to the Meteorogical Services, in Rodrigues, maximum temperatures are likely to reach 33 degrees Celsius along coastal areas on certain occasions.

“It is very likely that above normal temperatures giving rise to torrid conditions may be experienced at times. Above average daytime temperatures with high humidity and light wind conditions over prolonged periods, especially from January to March, can cause severe discomfort to the vulnerable groups of the population”, the report says.

The Meterological Services also indicate in their report that “cumulative summer rainfall is expected to be near normal with an average of about 1350 mm over Mauritius and around 650 mm over Rodrigues”. They add that “isolated rainfall will start as from the second half of November and that heavier convectional rainfall is expected by the second fortnight of December”.

The authors of the report predict that “from January to March 2012, atmospheric conditions will become conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as torrential rains and strong winds. Heavy summer rains may trigger occasional flash floods during this period”, the report adds.

We also learn from the report that the number of named storms for the 2011-2012 summer season may be around 7 to 9 with a probability of a named storm during the first fortnight of December 2011.
“The region between Agalega and Diego Garcia seems to be more prone to storm formation.

All named storms that will develop in the South Indian Ocean will not necessarily be a direct threat to the islands of the Republic of Mauritius. Statistical analysis shows that on the average there is a likelihood of at least one tropical storm evolving within 100 km of Mauritius and/or Rodrigues”,  underline the authors of the report.

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