La tempête tropicale modérée, Danilo, devrait passer à environ 80 km au nord-nord-ouest de Grand-Baie en fin d'après-midi ce dimanche 10 janvier, indique un communiqué spécial de la station météo de Vacoas émis ce mercredi 6 janvier.
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Selon les prévisions, Danilo se dirige dans une direction générale vers ouest à environ 10 km/h. Sur cette trajectoire, Danilo s'approche de notre région.
À 10 h ce mercredi 6 janvier, Danilo se trouvait à environ 1 900 km à l'est-nord-est de l'île Maurice, soit en 16,6 degrés de latitude est et 75,5 degrés en longitude est. Sa distance par rapport à Rodrigues était d'environ 1 300 km à l'est-nord-est.
Le communiqué indique que Danilo maintiendra une intensité modérée. Toutefois, on ne peut écarter des possibilités de variations au jour le jour par rapport à son intensité.
Autre information : des nuages associés à Danilo sont susceptibles d'influencer le temps à Maurice à partir de samedi matin 9 janvier avec des averses passagères.
Les averses deviendront plus fréquentes, accompagnées d’orages ce dimanche. Le temps venteux et pluvieux persistera jusqu'à lundi matin.
Des rafales avec des pointes de 90-100 km/h sont attendues.
Le vent du sud-est soufflera avec des rafales de 90 km / h.
La haute mer sera houleuse.
Ci-dessous le communiqué de la station météo de Vacoas :
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 12.15 hours on Wednesday 06 January 2021
General
Danilo weakened into a Moderate Tropical Storm (MTS) again last night. This morning’s satellite
imagery shows that the convective clouds associated with the system has considerably decreased.
The system is sheared and the centre of Danilo is well exposed. Furthermore, dry air at mid-level of
the troposphere is another constraint that is contributing to its weakening.
At 10.00 hours this morning Moderate Tropical Storm (MTS) Danilo was centred at about 1900 km to
the east-northeast of Mauritius in latitude 16.6 degrees east and longitude 75.5 degrees east. Its
distance with respect to Rodrigues was about 1300 km to the east-north-east. Danilo is now moving
in a general westerly direction at about 10 km/h. On this track MTS Danilo is approaching our region.
Outlook from weather models.
Given that MTS Danilo is evolving in an environment with several constraints, most models agrees
that the system will maintain a moderate intensity. It is not unlikely that there may be day to day
fluctuations in its intensity, but overall, it will be a moderate system with maximum gusts of the
order 90-100 km/h near the centre.
Weather at Rodrigues
MTS Danilo is likely to move at an accelerated speed as from this afternoon. On this forecast
trajectory, the system will pass at about 230 km to the north-north-west of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues
after midnight Friday or early morning Saturday at its closest distance.
Clouds associated with Danilo will start to influence Rodrigues as from Thursday 07 evening. The
weather will become cloudy with passing showers and it will be very windy with gusts of 80 km/h.
The showers may become heavy at times with thunderstorms.
Weather at Mauritius
As the systems moves westward, it is likely that it will recurve slightly toward the west-south-west as
from Friday afternoon. On this new expected track, MTS Danilo is likely to pass at about 80 km to the
north-northwest of Grand Bay late afternoon Sunday 10 January 2021.
Clouds associated with MTS Danilo are likely to influence Mauritius as from Saturday 09 morning
with passing showers. The showers are likely to become more frequent and heavier on Sunday with
thunderstorms. Wind will blow from the southeast with gusts of the 90 km/h. The sea will be very
rough.
The windy and showery weather will persist until Monday morning.
This forecast is based on available model data. Due to model uncertainties, this forecast may change.
MMS will continue to monitor the system closely and will inform the public accordingly. This bulletin
will be updated on Thursday 07 January 2021 around mid-day.
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